Properly reporting and interpreting the movement in the monthly unemployment rate requires one to have an understanding of variation. Yes, while it may be a surprise to many, monthly outcomes do vary from month to month irrespective of whether there is an identifiable cause—you can call this random noise. There are also variation patterns that [...]
Archive for the ‘Statistical Thinking’ Category
Act on Causes not Outcomes
Posted in Economy, Problem Solving, Statistical Thinking, Systems Thinking, tagged Critical Thinking, Decision-making, Economy, Problem Solving, Statistical Thinking, Systems Thinking, Variation on September 5, 2011 | Leave a Comment »
Statistically Speaking
Posted in Statistical Thinking, Systems Thinking, tagged Change, Critical Thinking, Decision-making, Education, Leadership, Learning, management, Problem Solving, Statistical Thinking, Systems Thinking, Variation on March 26, 2011 | 3 Comments »
Quantum physicists tell us that at the subatomic level there is indeterminacy to the interactions and interconnections of particles—that they do not take place at a definite place and time—and thus (they) exhibit a likelihood of occurring; reality is associated with a statistical probability distribution. In other words, variation is an inherent phenomenon characteristic of [...]
Data Should Lead to Understanding
Posted in Problem Solving, Statistical Thinking, Systems Thinking, tagged Complexity, Decision-making, Learning, Problem Solving, Statistical Thinking, Systems Thinking, Variation on February 16, 2011 | 2 Comments »
In a Baseline Scenario article titled Bad Data James Kwak stated, “to make a vast generalization, we live in a society where quantitative data are becoming more and more important. Some of this is because of the vast increase in the availability of data, which is itself largely due to computers. Some is because of [...]
A Matter of Results
Posted in Statistical Thinking, Systems Thinking, tagged Complexity, Decision-making, Problem Solving, Progress, Statistical Thinking, Systems Thinking, Variation on November 30, 2010 | 26 Comments »
It seems we are obsessed with results. We conduct life as if results are the only things that matter. To most results by any means are results just the same. We manage by results, we define problems by results, we define our job by results, we make individuals accountable for results, we cause harm to [...]
Either/Or Thinking
Posted in Management, Problem Solving, Statistical Thinking, tagged Decision-making, Learning, management, Problem Solving, Statistical Thinking, Variation on October 20, 2010 | 8 Comments »
The Newtonian-Cartesian dualism that informed the development of our socio-economic system also guides us to think in dichotomous or dualistic terms—win/lose, us/them, liberal/conservative, profit/loss, good/bad, favorable/unfavorable—and also to believe that if something is not quantifiable it isn’t important. Such thinking promotes judgment of experience not learning from experience. Because of this either/or habit of thought [...]
Objects or Subjects
Posted in Leadership, Relationships, Statistical Thinking, tagged Complexity, Decision-making, Leadership, Learning, management, Statistical Thinking, Variation on September 16, 2010 | 13 Comments »
Newton’s laws of motion afford the quantification of the motion of matter (i.e. objects) and correspondingly by way of calculation the determination of the movement of the objects. It is because of these laws we can determine the effect of two objects interacting (colliding), such as when a golf club hits a golf ball or [...]
Uncertainty to Chaos
Posted in Statistical Thinking, Systems Thinking, tagged Complexity, Critical Thinking, Learning, management, Problem Solving, Quality, Statistical Thinking, Systems Thinking on May 26, 2010 | 3 Comments »
What do you do when faced with uncertainty? Consider for example that you are scheduled to arrive at a meeting location where you have never been and are uncertain about the length of time it will take to get there, what do you do? If you are like most you leave a bit earlier, just [...]
Misplaced Attention for Leadership
Posted in Leadership, Progress, Statistical Thinking, tagged Leadership, management, Progress, Quality, Systems Thinking on April 25, 2010 | 8 Comments »
Seemingly for decades countless studies have failed to develop an operational definition of leadership. The only clear notion that many seem to advance is that leadership is the property of those persons within the upper echelon of an organization’s hierarchy: Leadership has become synonymous with a person of position or title—hence the commonly expressed goal [...]
Misinterpreting Data
Posted in Statistical Thinking, tagged Decision-making, Learning, Statistical Thinking, Systems Thinking on March 8, 2010 | 4 Comments »
The March 5, 2010 New York Times headline read, “jobless rate holds steady, raising hopes of recovery”. Apparently it doesn’t take much to raise hope, at least among those doing the reporting. Why is two consecutive points with the same value (i.e. 9.7% in both January and February) a reason for hope? Would two consecutively [...]
Mind Before Money
Posted in Problem Solving, Quality, Statistical Thinking, Systems Thinking, tagged Complexity, Critical Thinking, Decision-making, Leadership, management, Problem Solving, Progress, Quality, Statistical Thinking, Systems Thinking on February 3, 2010 | 3 Comments »
Often those in authority within an organization—frequently referred to as ‘the leadership’—use the thing they believe is valued by most as a way of resolving a complex problem. That is, they throw money at it! While it does cost money to solve problems—energy is often expended—this does not mean that everything can be solved with [...]
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